] KEY NOTES No.38 - Rt Hon John Key
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22 September 2008
KEY NOTES No.38

It's been just over a week since the date was finally confirmed and I am really enjoying being out on the campaign trail. Click here to see video from my trip to the Wairarapa last week.

We've released a significant amount of policy in the last few weeks and more is coming - so bookmark the policy index page on the National website and come back often.

Setting the course for a return to growth

Yesterday I spoke to the Road Transport Forum in Rotorua and outlined National's economic plan, and spoke in detail about our infrastructure plans. Read the full speech here.

National is conscious of the challenging economic conditions facing the world right now. 

These challenges will have serious implications for New Zealand, and we shouldn't underestimate them. The reality is that the New Zealand economy is currently in recession, and the US economy, in particular, is looking shaky. 

This could well have serious effects throughout our economy for some time yet, in terms of:

• The prices our commodities fetch in overseas markets.
• The opportunities our exporters have to grow.
• The ability our businesses have to raise finance.  

Bill English, members of our economic team, and I are watching these developments closely.

However, the appropriate response is not for government to give up on setting the conditions for economic growth. On the contrary, the appropriate response is for government to focus squarely on backing the businesses and workers that can get this country moving again.

This is the test against which political parties should be measured at this election. What will the next Government do to make sure workers and businesses face the right economic incentives and conditions needed to keep workers in this country? What will the next Government do to improve the economic fundamentals that have held New Zealand back for the past nine years?

So, this election campaign, every time Labour makes a big spending promise, ask yourself this question: What will this do to strengthen the backbone of our economy?

Because this is not a time for a big-spending Government with a careless attitude towards the public purse.  Nor is this a time for a Government with a track-record of economic under-performance. And this is definitely not a time for a Prime Minister who wants to talk about any issue but her Government's economic management.

New Zealand needs a new, disciplined pair of hands. New Zealand needs leadership that understands what this economy needs to recover. National is ready to provide that leadership.

Our number one policy priority is to strengthen the New Zealand economy.  Because I know that only a strong economy will guarantee financial security for families, well-paid jobs in New Zealand for our young people, and larger superannuation payments for our older people.

National's Infrastructure plan

Good infrastructure is vital to a well-running economy. Achieving a step-up in infrastructure development is a key part of National's economic plan.

As you know, for the past several years, New Zealand has shown all the symptoms of a severe infrastructure deficit:

- Traffic jams.
- Slow internet connections.
- Inadequate public transport networks.
- Calls to cut back on electricity use. 

These individual annoyances have a big-picture effect. They constrain productivity growth, and they put huge pressure on inflation.  

National will invest close to $5 billion of additional capital investment over the next six years to fund infrastructure over and above that foreshadowed by Labour.

This means that, at the most, National will be running a gross debt-to-GDP ratio around two percentage points higher than Labour is planning.

National will make this small increase in overall government debt because we know it will help get New Zealand through this downturn. Because, right now, the problem facing the government is not Crown debt.  

In fact, when you look at the Crown's overall balance sheet, New Zealand isn't in the red – it's well in the black. And when you look at the Crown's gross debt, you find that the New Zealand Government has one of the lowest debt levels in the developed world.

In reality, the place to look for a debt problem is increasingly in the households of everyday New Zealanders.

Many New Zealanders are experiencing record levels of private debt. What's worrying is that this is combined with little current prospect of the income growth needed to service those debts.   

The average household debt-to-income ratio is now much bigger than the Government's gross debt-to-GDP ratio. So the challenge for the Government isn't about how to reduce Crown debt. It's about how to get Kiwi incomes growing strongly again to ensure they aren't suffering from an unmanageable debt burden.

What New Zealanders need from Government right now is the prospect of increased after-tax wages.

The challenge for the next Government, then, is to ensure the economy grows fast enough to make sure Kiwis can get ahead. So the Government can afford to let the belt out a small notch in order to build the stronger foundations for economic growth. 

• It's economic growth that will increase Kiwis' pre-tax incomes.
• It's economic growth that will allow Kiwis to pay off their debt faster.
• It's economic growth that will allow Kiwis to invest for the future. 

So, a National Government won't obsess about a two percentage point change in the debt-to-GDP ratio.

We will focus our attention on the growth side of the equation. We will invest to create the prosperous economic future New Zealanders deserve. We will do this because we know that the alternative is that everyday New Zealanders will suffer financially, for longer. 

Valuing Families

A few days ago, I spoke to the Family First New Zealand Forum on the Family and made it clear that while National is focused on the economy, we are also committed to improving the effectiveness and efficiency of core social services, especially as they affect family life.

As a brother, a husband, and a father, I certainly know that my family is the thing I value most in life.  And, as National Party Leader, I am proud to support families as the most important institution in our society.  

I was raised, along with my sisters, in a state house in Christchurch.  Back then I thought I was poor and, by most standards we were.  As I grew up, though, I recognised that what my mother gave to my sisters and I was far more valuable than money.

She instilled in us the desire to improve ourselves by our own hard work, the confidence that we were able to do it, and the hope that it was possible to do so.  She instilled in me an ethic of hard work and determination and a genuine belief that "you get out of life what you put into it".

Ultimately, the mission of the next National Government will be to show all New Zealanders the truth of that saying.  I urge you to read the full speech.

John Key


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#1 - speight 2008-09-22 21:01 - (Reply)

Very very good so many of us agree just needs wider promulgation and we cant go wrong thankyou!.

#2 - Rowland Church 2008-09-22 21:49 - (Reply)

Go John Key Pity about the back stabbing. Just hold your head high and carry on. Helen will get dirty but it will show her true character. Just stay aloof and keep smiling. We want You and National Rowland Glenfield

#2.1 - jennifer 2008-09-23 14:07 - (Reply)

the more Labour conducts smear campaigns, the more determined I am to vote National, and help in any way I can. fortunately it's debatable whether smear campaigns work. they just make the smearers look ugly.

#3 - Marc Atkinson 2008-09-22 22:23 - (Reply)

Pls confirm your tax policy. I have got the latest from Labour on their site but cant find your details anywhere on your web sites. What relief will be offered and at what $ salary levels. Whats the plan if you win. Thanks EDITOR: The tax policy on the Labour site is from 2005. National's tax policy will be released when the formal election period begins, after the opening of the Government's books.

#4 - Sue Lunjevich 2008-09-22 22:56 - (Reply)

Looking after families and ensuring well paid jobs for our people is good but what about agriculture? The ETS and NAIT are imposing unnecessary costs as none of this will do anything but run farmers broke. All but dairy farmers are struggling as it is and these stupid laws will break some of us. Jim Anderton's newsletter says that world consumers want to know which farm their meat comes from and even which part of the farm. How ridiculous!! Most of our animals spend time on every part of our farm during their time here. I hope we have a change after the election but would like to know that National is intending to do something positive for farmers as we are having it pretty rough at the moment. Thanks for your time. Sue from Kaitaia

#5 - John Chant 2008-09-23 08:45 - (Reply)

I support all efforts to raise the standard of living of those at the bottom of the heap who can't make ends meet. However, I cannot support the current provisions in the Working for Families package. As I explained to Richard Worth the terms regarding income are totally wrong in that those families already in a relatively affluent position qualify for "relief". If National reaffirms this policy you must renegotiate the terms to include only those that truly need the money and cut out those with 6-figure incomes irrespective of their circumstances. They can survive without charity As things stand it appears to be a case of "unto them that hath shall be given". This must stop and the money passed to the truly needy. John Chant. Cockle Bay, Howick, Ak. 0-9-534 7964.

#6 - John Sweeney 2008-09-23 09:46 - (Reply)

Keep hitting the 'hard work ethic" and reward those for it. Sadly, some employees are being laid off because of the lack of funding. As a valuer I see too many young people over-committed for the level of income they are on and the greedy's are waiting to snap up their assets. Go John Key. Keep your focus on getting this great country of ours back on track and all working for a better outcome than what we have had over the past 9 years!

#7 - Roger Ellis said:
2008-09-23 10:33 - (Reply)

Agree that the Government debt levels are in good shape. Also agree that the private sector and households are heavily indebted. Also agree tax cuts are important for economic performance. But how will you promote greater household debt-repayment and saving?

#8 - Garry Coley 2008-09-23 10:44 - (Reply)

John, Keep up the good work Labour will try to steal your policies and the dirt will fly but stay focused. The economy is important. Please desist from proceeding with the Climate change bill. Shelve it - it does not conform with your stated policy of helping families in todays present economic climate (pun intended). And middle NZ is not convinced.

#9 - Heather Davis 2008-09-23 10:58 - (Reply)

Thank you for the Key Notes. But how about someone in the organisation answering my emailed query re National Super! Ignoring emails is not a way to win voters. Regards Heather Davis [ADMIN: I've passed this along, Heather.]

#9.1 - Hilary Marks 2008-09-23 14:05 - (Reply)

I, too, am waiting for a response to my email regarding national superannuation. All I got was an "out of office" reply and nothing since. I want to know if a National government will change the age of entitlement as was done under a previous National government. Is it a case of no reply being a yes! Hilary Marks [ADMIN: I've checked and your email was received only within the last few days. John's office typically receives many hundreds of email inquiries a week, making it impossible to respond thoughtfully in as prompt a manner as many correspondents might wish. A response is in the works.]

#10 - Jason Read 2008-09-23 13:27 - (Reply)

I think you will do a great job John, What about ripping into welfare! My wife and I work full time and get sick and tired of seeing out tax dollar go towards lazy people who don't want to work. I think you would be surprised at how much more support you would get if you got stuck into welfare and crime big time. Good luck.

#10.1 - RJM 2008-09-24 11:01 - (Reply)

You are right of course, welfare is suposed to be for genuine hardships etc, but our leaders over the years have never learnt that the nature of some people is such that if you give them something for nothing they will continue to do same. As for crime/justice etc, maybe some of our do gooders and judges should get out & about a bit more, maybe on police patrols & a taste of the world we have created for ourselves. RJM

#11 - John Buckley 2008-09-24 10:24 - (Reply)

Please inform us of what National proposes, if elected, to encouraging the use of public transport. Although retired we pay full fares for our bus and train services yet workers can get cheap monthly tickets. We subsidise these privately owned sevices through our rates. The suggestion that trades should be taught at schools and colleges shows a lack of understanding of the time and equipment needed to teach trades. Perhaps it is time to reintroduce real trade training and apprenticeship systems as they were until dismantled in the early 1990's.

#11.1 - Anonymous 2008-09-24 17:35 - (Reply)

John you are sure right about trade training, these days we have a abundance of ITOs (industry training organisation) and yet we have a major skill shortage. When my son left school to become apprentice electrician he was told he could do better than that by going to unversity.That disgusted me. He was registered before he turned twenty one, now making a very good income, got no student loan, and looking at further higher level education. My point is that these educationlist/colleges should pull their heads in a bit and encourage trade involvement. Maybe we should shut down a couple of unversities & turn them into trade schools, I always tell the young ones that where they start as no bearing on where the finish up, & dont put yourself down because you were average at school, because schools do not appear to regonise hands on skills. RJM

#12 - John Campbell 2008-09-28 05:54 - (Reply)

What we need from National is a commitment to get out of the Kyoto protocol and throw that emmissions trading tax scheme legislation into the rubbish bin where it belongs. Man and CO2 ar not the cause of climate change, it is a cyclic and natural phenomenon. When will people wake up?? Where will all this extra money we will pay in extra fuel costs etc actually go and what will it do? Line some ones pocket for nothing no doubt.

#13 - Neville Cumins 2008-09-29 09:28 - (Reply)

I agree with you but I would like to know what roll Kiwisaver will play in your plans for a more secure future for all New Zealanders? Go the Nats

#14 - John Chant 2008-09-29 14:22 - (Reply)

I echo Mr. Campbell's thoughts. It's sensationalising people like Al Gore that is scaring folks into believing that all our problems are the result of homo sapiens raising ambient temperatures through consumerism and threatening the future of this planet. This, of course, is arrant nonsense. If these scaremongers cared to consult with the ancient history of this planet they would see that atmospheric changes have occured numerous times down the ages and they will do so again. Kyoto is garbage. Having said that I agree that we should make strenuous efforts to clean up our act world-wide and preserve our resources for those as yet unborn. Let's look one major statistic in the face and then kill off Kyoto. New Zealand currently produces less than one half of one percent of global pollution and yet we want to shoot ourselves in our collective feet to show the rest of the world what jolly fine self-sacrificing folk we are. How dumb can we get?


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